Combining <i>p</i>-values for Multivariate Predictive Ability Testing

Testing for Unconditional Predictive Ability

This chapter provides an overview of pseudo-out-of-sample tests of unconditional predictive ability. We begin by providing an overview of the literature, including both empirical applications and theoretical contributions. We then delineate two distinct methodologies for conducting inference: one based on the analytics in West (1996) and the other based on those in Giacomini and White (2006). T...

Testing Predictive Ability and Power Robustication

One of the approaches to compare forecasting methods is to test whether the risk from a benchmark prediction is smaller than the others. The test can be embedded into a general problem of testing inequality constraints using a one-sided sup functional. Hansen (2005) showed that such tests su¤er from asymptotic bias. This paper generalizes this observation, and proposes a hybrid method to robust...

On Using Asymptotic Critical Values in Testing for Multivariate Normality

Many multivariate statistical methods call upon the assumption of multivariate normality. However, many researchers fail to test this assumption. This omission could be due either to ignorance of the existence of tests of multivariate normality or confusion about which test to use. Although at least 50 tests of multivariate normality exist, relatively little is known about the power of these pr...

Testing for Multivariate Cointegration in the Presence of Structural Breaks: p-Values and Critical Values

Contact author: David E. Giles, Dept. of Economics, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, B.C., Canada V8W 2Y2; e-mail: [email protected]; Phone: (250) 721-8540; FAX: (250) 721-6214 Abstract Testing for multivariate cointegration when the data exhibit structural breaks is a problem that is encountered frequently in empirical economic analysis. The standard tests must be modifie...

Predictive ability of C-reactive protein for stroke